Diwali Opening - Aarambam vs AAA vs Pandiyanadu

A number of websites and media have been proclaiming that Arrambam is all set for an earth-shattering opening so on and so forth without any backing from real data. As the chart shows, the fact is far from reality. It is true that there will be only one movie, Arrambam, running in almost all the theatres in Tamil Nadu on Thursday and Friday. However, the show count changes significantly starting Saturday and Sunday. It will be a big ugly battle for screens for Arrambam, All in All Azhaguraja and Pandiyanadu.

Arrambam

Ajith's Arrambam starts strong on Thursday and Friday and gradually drops during the festival weekend due to the release of other movies. Typically, a solo release of this scale would enjoy an uninterrupted run of at least a week or two. In the case of Arrambam, the show count is scaled back to 60% of the peak even before the weekend collection begins. What does it mean? It is important for that every show of Arrambam across the state should be registering almost full house on Thursday, Friday and rest of the weekend. So far, the status at many of the multiplexes are only between 60% and 90% in advance booking. Overall, Arrambam is looking good to have a good opening. But, it is unlikely that any records will be broken.

All in All Azhaguraja

Studio Green is not bucking under any pressure as it over-confidently launches Karthi's first Diwali release against Ajith. The movie will be along the lines of usual Santhanam-Rajesh combination that we have come to expect. Studio Green has been aggressively poaching the screens from Arrambam starting Saturday. The distribution house is working overtime to win over the family audience who may be looking for a run-of-the-mill comedy movie. All in All Azhaguraja's risky release strategy may back-fire if Arrambam gets a headstart with good word of mouth. 

Pandiya Nadu

After a long time, Vishal's movie looks promising. However, it is not clear why Pandiya nadu is releasing amidst tough competition and hurting its chances. Many of the fans are considering "Pandiya Nadu" as a 3rd option behind Arrambam and All in All Azhaguraja. The number of shows are limited and screens are not big either. The chances of Pandiya Nadu overpowering AAA and Arrambam in terms of box office collections purely through positive word of mouth is nothing short of miracle. It is a poor timing of release for Pandiya Nadu as situations look bleak for this Vishal's starrer. Is it too late for Vishal to pull out of the Diwali race?

It is a Zero-Sum Game!

This is not a truly long weekend to accommodate 3 big releases since Diwali is during the weekend. The winner will be determined by who will bring the families to the theatres in throngs. The family audience will pick only one of the three movies based on the verdict. Right now, Arrambam has a clear upper hand compared to rest of the releases.

So far, it is turning out to be a zero-sum game with gains made by one balancing out the losses of another. If "All in All Azhaguraja" and "Pandianadu"had spaced out their releases, all these movies could have maximized the overall box office collections and revenues, which would have been good for Tamil industry.