Velayudham is pulling ahead in the race as 7aum Arivu trips at the start line

Based on the initial reviews for both the Diwali movies, we do not expect any real box office records to be broken. The objective now is to take respective movies to safety for investors and quickly claim the bragging rights of who really won this Diwali 2011 race.

Fan Base 

Velayudham wins hands-down between the two loyal fan groups. Loyal fans of Vijay have provided an overwhelming support for Velayudham. Vijay fan base believes that they have a good enough product in hand to make it a blockbuster. On the other hand, 7aum Arivu has clearly let down its fans. Since the movie did not meet the level of high expectations that AR Murugadoss had confidently punch'ed in press meets (e.g., "neenga evalavu mela, mela, mela movie expect panni vandhalum, padam adhukkum mela, mela, mela nalla irukkum"), 7am Arivu camp is feeling down as the movie's verdict is barely above average.

Critics

Again, Velayudham has won over the support of popular critics who have the ability to swing the pendulum during the first week. SIFY rated Velayudham very high, giving it a 4 out of 5 stars and called it a perfect outing with family while slamming hard 7am Arivu by calling it a tiring watch. Rediff gave a slightly higher rating for 7aum Arivu compared to Velayudham while sounding more excited about the latter and called Velayudham a 'Paisa Vasool'. Behindwoods decided to play it safe by going with 3 stars for both. Rest of the critics also gave more favorable reviews for Velayudham compared to 7am Arivu.

Neutral Fans

The Box Office battle is won or lost based on the neutral fans. Sooner you bring this group to the theatres, faster you recover your investments. For example, Mankatha was able to break-even by making 40 Crores within the first 10 days of release because of the support from neutrals. The big question in this Diwali race that is yet to be answered is whether the neutral fans would prefer Velayudham or 7aum Arivu. 

Bottom-line

Overall, Velayudham seems to have a upper hand because of favorable critic reviews. But, 7aum Arivu is making quick adjustments with their messaging after realizing that they have a sub-standard product in their hand. 7am Arivu is now branding this movie as a must watch for all Tamilians; almost infusing a sense of guilt by making you wonder whether you are still a true Tamilian if you don't support this movie. It is not entirely clear how Velayudham is planning to counter 7am Arivu's change in promotional tactics. This weekend will be crucial in determining who wins the race in the long run.